Tag Archives: recession

Gentrified Urban America Will Be Hit Hard by the Recession

A number of macro dynamics have set up gentrified urban America for a big fall in the coming recession. What does gentrified mean? Gentrified means only the gentry (top 10%) can afford to enjoy the urban amenities as commercial rents and … Continue reading

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The Recession Will Be Unevenly Distributed

The coming recession will be unevenly distributed, meaning that it will devastate many while leaving others relatively untouched. A few will actually do better in the recession than they did in the so-called “recovery.” I realize many of the concepts floated … Continue reading

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Could Stocks Rally Even as Parts of the Economy Are Recessionary?

We contrarians can’t help it: when the herd is bullish, we start looking for a reversal. When the herd turns bearish, we also start looking for a reversal. So now that the herd is skittishly bearish, anticipating a recession, contrarians start … Continue reading

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The Next Recession Will Be Devastatingly Non-Linear

Linear correlations are intuitive: if GDP declines 2% in the next recession, and employment declines 2%, we get it: the scale and size of the decline aligns. In a linear correlation, we’d expect sales to drop by about 2%, businesses closing … Continue reading

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Swamp Thing Takes Over Treasury – ForclosureGate II, the Sequel

ForclosureGate (circa 2010 forward): Widespread mortgage fraud as a result of an unregulated, rigged housing market guaranteed to create a collapse and waves of foreclosures, all of which leads to major hardship for homeowners and their families. (Washington, DC)  Wall … Continue reading

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