Tag Archives: s-curve

Lesson of the S-Curve: Doing More of What’s Failed Will Fail Spectacularly

I often refer to the S-Curve because Nature so often tracks this curve of ignition, rapid expansion, stagnation and decline. One lesson of the S-Curve is that the human bias to keep doing more of what worked so well in the … Continue reading

Posted in General | Tagged , | Leave a comment

How States/Empires Collapse in Four Easy Steps

There is a grand, majestic tragedy in the inevitable collapse of once-thriving states and empires: it all seemed so permanent at its peak, so godlike in its power, and then slowly but surely, too many grandiose, unrealistic promises were made to … Continue reading

Posted in General | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Here’s The Problem: The Pie Is Shrinking

Scrape away the churn and distraction and the problem is simple: the pie of prosperity is shrinking, and the “fixes” are failing. The status quo arrangement is based on the endless expansion of “growth” and debt, which is the monetary fuel … Continue reading

Posted in General | Tagged , | Leave a comment

China’s S-Curve of Expansion, Stagnation and Decline

Natural and human systems tend to go through stages of expansion, stagnation and decline that follow what’s known as the S-Curve. The dynamic isn’t difficult to understand: an unfilled ecological niche is suddenly open due to a new adaptation; a bacteria … Continue reading

Posted in General | Tagged , | Leave a comment

The Crisis of 2025

While many fear a war between the nuclear powers or the breakdown of civil order, I tend to think the Crisis of 2023-26 is more likely to be financial in nature. War and civil breakdown are certainly common enough in history, … Continue reading

Posted in General | Tagged , , | Leave a comment